NPD analysis: The summer box office

How the top movie blockbusters of 2018 have been impacting on the toy business.

The challenges facing the licensing business continue in 2018 with many retailers struggling early on this year. None more so than Toys R Us, of course. This is a big change to the retailer side of the UK licensing business, with Toy R Us often seen as a showcase for key licences especially for big movie releases, which often dominated its feature wall.

The big question is where will consumers shop for their film-related toys now? There are many retailers that look set to pick up some of these licensed purchases including toy specialists like Smyths and The Entertainer, Argos and not to mention the grocers.

However, with 40% of all licensing purchases already made online (Source: NPD License Tracker 2017), it may be that the licensing world now has to put even more focus on the digital sales world, as well as digital marketing.

It’s not all doom and gloom in licensing in 2018 though. Black Panther was a big hit at the cinema for Marvel early in the year, and while the consumer products were a bit of a missed opportunity, with just £633k sales of toys (YTD March 2018, Source: NPD POS Retail Tracking), it marks the start of 2018 movie blockbuster season.

With less concentrated film release scheduled in 2018 compared to last year, there’s opportunity for the films to breathe a little in the consumer product space. Next to market was Avengers: Infinity War in April, the culmination of many individual film characters and one shared universe. Age of Ultron in 2015 lead to Avengers selling £31m of toys products alone so expectations are high for this year’s big superhero mash-up.

Another big franchise which has just returned to the cinema is Jurassic World from Universal with Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom out. With Mattel producing the toys, these dinosaurs are roaring back to life and hoping to beat the £8m of product sold in 2015. Both of these movie licences are most likely to impact the action figures and building sets areas of the toy market which have higher than the total toy market average of 26% of sales through licences.

However, it’s not just movies that we need to look out for in 2018. Even with a couple of months still to go before the Russia 2018 World Cup, the Panini World Cup Stickers jumped up the best sellers lists for toys in the last couple of weeks of March, despite average price of just 80p per pack.

In addition, one of the fastest licences in toys YTD March 2018 is PJ Masks which has grown over the last year to be one of the largest preschool licences alongside PAW Patrol, Peppa Pig and Thomas & Friends.

Movies will remain a key arena for the licensed market, as strong cinema attendance can attest. However, with the retailer world changing and consumers changing how they consume content at home, the licensing world needs to look for new opportunities – both with established characters and franchises and for new types of licences – for driving these cinema visits and streaming experiences into consumer product purchases or lifestyle choices.

Statistic snapshot

  • £8 million – amount of Jurassic World toy product sold in 2015.
  • Action figures is the most heavily licensed toy category with three quarters of sales through licences.
  • 40% – amount of licensed purchases already made online (Source: NPD License Tracker 2017).
  • £31 million – amount of Avengers toy products sold thanks to the boost from Age of Ultron in 2015.
  • £633,000 – sales of Black Panther toys (YTD March 2018, Source: NPD POS Retail Tracking).
  • 80p – average price of a pack of Panini’s World Cup stickers, already a top seller in the toy category.

NPD’s UK License Tracker aims to equip licensors, manufacturers and retailers to uncover opportunities and grow their share of the licensed product marketplace. You can find out more by contacting NPD on 020 8237 1300.

This feature originally appeared in the summer 2018 edition of Licensing Source Book. Click here to read the full publication.

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